Update from SAGE: Delay phase modelling

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The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) met yesterday and reviewed the latest numbers of cases in the UK, updated modelling, interventions made by other countries, and proposals for monitoring and modelling the outbreak as it advances.

The two major objectives were reiterated – save lives and reduce the peak of the epidemic to reduce the very considerable pressure on the NHS. This means examining interventions that can flatten the curve and those which ensure those most at risk are shielded.

The review of the new data showed that as anticipated the epidemic is progressing and on that basis SAGE advised the next planned effective interventions (shielding the vulnerable and household isolation) will need to be instituted soon.

SAGE is examining models of further interventions. SAGE also agreed that in line with good scientific practice the modelling and data considered by SAGE in future will be published.

Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance and Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said:

We are dealing with a very fast moving epidemic with emerging data from many disciplines and many complex decisions.

Scientists across the world are helping each other, governments and society to deal with this international emergency

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